How we approach metrics in our alerts.

The initial A–D Rating measures the strength and specificity of a market signal when it is published. The current model assigns points for explicit investing or trading language, a concrete catalyst such as a tariff, contract, investment, acquisition, or regulatory action, a quantified commitment, a specifically identified stock or currency, and a relevant industry.

An A requires a clear direction, a specific asset, a strong catalyst, and at least six points. B requires four points, C requires two, and D covers signals below that level. A high Rating means the statement contains a clearer market mechanism—not that the predicted market reaction is certain.

Yes. After a 24-hour grace period, directional equity alerts can receive a live performance adjustment. FigureWire calculates the median move of the watched stocks, subtracts the S&P 500 benchmark move, and evaluates the result in the direction the alert identified.

A move against the signal can lower the Rating: below 0 percentage points maps to B, below −3 to C, and below −8 to D. The live adjustment can preserve or lower the initial Rating, but it does not upgrade it. Non-directional alerts and alerts without sufficient equity data retain their initial Rating.

Signal Confidence estimates how strongly the available source and analysis support the alert’s classification. For configured topic matches, it combines source reliability (60%) with mechanism strength (40%). Mechanism strength begins at 45%, increases by 12 percentage points for each relevant keyword match, and is capped at 95%.

For contextual AI analysis, confidence combines source reliability (40%) with the contextual model’s confidence (60%). The displayed number is rounded to the nearest percentage point. Alerts generally must reach 72% to publish; Donald Trump alerts use a 75% threshold. Confidence measures classification support, not the probability of a profitable trade or a particular price move.

These labels describe the direction implied by the matched market mechanism. Bullish indicates a potentially positive effect on the watched asset, Bearish indicates a potentially negative effect, and Market-Moving means the statement appears significant but does not provide a sufficiently clear direction. They are analytical classifications, not trading instructions.

FigureWire selects the available market price closest to the source publication time as the baseline, then compares it with the latest available price. The percentage shown is the change from that baseline. Equity, crypto, currency, and commodity data come from different market-data sources and intervals, so timestamps and venue coverage can vary. Values may be delayed or unavailable when a market is closed or a provider has no usable observation near the alert time.

The expected reaction window is the period in which the identified mechanism would most plausibly affect the watched markets. It is assigned from the matched topic or contextual analysis. It is not an expiration date, price target, or guarantee that a reaction will occur within that period.

Top Movers prioritizes A-rated alerts with an observed market move aligned with the alert’s direction. FigureWire ranks the strongest aligned moves and can display up to four alerts. When no primary candidate is available, the section becomes Watch List and fills at least two positions using the strongest available market moves, Rating, and recency. Watch List items are useful context, but they do not meet the primary Top Movers criteria.